Main events:
• Stock indices at new highs
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell steps down
• Interest rates on mortgage loans continue to rise
Summary of the current situation:
During April, the situation in the Middle East calmed down. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is holding around USD 95, investors are not bothered by this at all, and stocks have been rising since the end of March.
It is therefore likely being assumed that the conflict will not have a long-term impact and that oil prices will return to lower levels. Specifically, the S&P 500 index managed to rise by more than 10% in April alone and is now at new highs around USD 7,300. Overall, the technology segment performed best, especially semiconductor companies.
The ongoing earnings season is also a reason for the positive growth, as the largest companies (big tech firms) have exceeded expectations. It is clear that demand for AI, cloud services and new data centres is strong and continues to grow. However, we will see how long the euphoria of the past month lasts.
And how did other assets perform? Gold remained rather in a sideways range between USD 4,500 and USD 4,800 over the past month. We are currently at around USD 4,700 per troy ounce.
Bitcoin also performed well over the past month and managed to rise from USD 70,000 to USD 80,000. The trend is slowly turning there, but we are still more than 30% below the highs.
Macroeconomic summary:
Let us move on to the key macroeconomic indicators and start with the year-on-year inflation rate in the Czech Republic, which came in at 1.9% for March. A moderate increase to as much as 3% is expected in the coming months, due to high oil and fuel prices.
Another meeting of the US central bank took place on 29 April 2026. It again kept interest rates at 3.75%. At present, no further rate cuts are expected in the future, and a slight increase could rather occur towards the end of the year. However, everything will depend on the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
A major topic was Jerome Powell’s departure from the position of Fed Chair, as his term expires in May. He will officially be replaced by Kevin Warsh, who was appointed to the role by Donald Trump. Surprisingly, however, Jerome Powell will remain a member of the Fed until 2028 and will not be driven out by pressure from Trump.
The year-on-year inflation rate for March in the USA came in as high as 3.3% – precisely because of high oil prices. A further increase is expected in the future, as oil remains between USD 90 and USD 100 for longer than anticipated.
March unemployment data in the USA ultimately came in at 4.3%, in line with expectations. So far, there are no problems in the labour market.
At its meeting on 30 April 2026, the ECB again kept interest rates at the current level of 2.15%. However, due to rising fuel prices, slight interest rate increases could occur by the end of 2026.
As for year-on-year inflation results in Europe, the figure for March came in as high as 2.6%. An increase to as much as 3% is expected in the coming months.
Czech Republic:
The year-on-year inflation rate in the Czech Republic came in at 1.9% for March. A moderate increase to as much as 3% is expected in the coming months, due to high oil and fuel prices.
Source: hypoindex.cz
Due to the conflict, yields on medium-term and long-term Czech government bonds continue to rise, and the average interest rate agreed on mortgages has also increased.
For April and May, it rose above the 5% threshold again and currently stands at as much as 5.19%. It is likely to rise slightly further in the future.
USA:
The year-on-year inflation rate for March in the USA came in as high as 3.3% – precisely because of high oil prices. A further increase is expected in the future, as oil remains between USD 90 and USD 100 for longer than anticipated.
March unemployment data in the USA ultimately came in at 4.3%, in line with expectations. So far, there are no problems in the labour market.
Another meeting of the US central bank took place on 29 April 2026. It again kept interest rates at 3.75%. At present, no further rate cuts are expected in the future, and a slight increase could rather occur towards the end of the year. However, everything will depend on the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
US interest rate (current forecast)
A major topic was Jerome Powell’s departure from the position of Fed Chair, as his term expires in May. He will officially be replaced by Kevin Warsh, who was appointed to the role by Donald Trump. Surprisingly, however, Jerome Powell will remain a member of the Fed until 2028 and will not be driven out by pressure from Trump.
The S&P 500 index rose by as much as 10.48% during March, reaching new highs of USD 7,300.
Europe:
As for year-on-year inflation results in Europe, the figure for March came in as high as 2.6%. An increase to as much as 3% is expected in the coming months.
At its meeting on 30 April 2026, the ECB again kept interest rates at the current level of 2.15%. However, due to rising fuel prices, slight interest rate increases could occur by the end of 2026.
ECB interest rate
Source: www.www.tradingeconomics.org
European stock indices also experienced a turnaround during April, with the MSCI Europe index gaining 7.26% in US dollar terms.
